Analyst Reaction to DIRECTV’s Q2

Although reaction to DIRECTV’s second quarter results seemed to be somewhat mixed, some industry analysts are saying the company did better than expected. Thanks to subscriber and ARPU gains, it appears DIRECTV’s quarter was more positive than negative.

Wedbush Morgan’s William Kidd seems to agree, saying in light of the current weak retail environment, DIRECTV’s addition of 128,000 new U.S. subscribers and 141,000 Latin American net subs can only be seen as a positive. Also key, in Kidd’s opinion, was that the company reported 50 percent more high-def and DVR customers during the period, boosting ARPU up 6.8 percent.

When DIRECTV CEO Chase Carey unveiled the satcaster’s plans to launch with 70 HD channels by Q3, and have 100 a couple months shortly after, Kidd said the new offering “will give DIRECTV a considerable short-term advantage over cable and likely continue to drive this ARPU trend.”

Coming from the Oppenheimer camp, Thomas Eagan said (again) that although he expects DIRECTV’s positive financial trends to continue, the analyst sees more downside as many of the company’s catalysts have already been achieved.

Eagan concurred that DIRECTV’s ARPU trend is a positive for the company, and that higher SAC ($688 per) reflects increased company spending to drive its HD customer growth. However, the analyst said DIRECTV’s subscriber adds were below most estimates, and net addition weakness reflects that higher-than-expected churn of 1.58 percent. Eagan also said the churn disappointed company management and expected to see an improvement next period.

Pertaining to the company’s Latin America business, Citigroup’s Jason Bazinet said revenues of $409 million and EBITDA of $95 million beat the firm’s estimates on both, and the analyst looked positively upon DIRECTV’s 141,000 Latin net subscriber additions. Bazinet said Citigroup continues to believe DIRECTV shares represent a compelling value, while the potential for mergers and acquisitions after the Liberty/News Corp. asset swap remains in place.









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